The future of online learning

Interesting session yesterday on the future of online learning. I have posted the notes I took below. The main takeaway is that explosive growth could cause problems for virtual schools if poor schools stay open. The other take away is the commoditization of virtual content as a result of the incredible growth. Schools, content providers, LMS and others are all going to have to find new ways to innovate to survive. Very exciting time to be in virtual education.

See the report here: http://www.kpk12.com/
Online Learning – issues and opportunitiesChallenges:
• Movement of online courses to district level – groundswell of districts offering their own programs in blended learning model – the challenge is finding data from those programs
• Past the novelty phase – now a real player and much higher expectation for accountability and will be forced to compare to brick and mortar students
• Getting people to understand that there really are a lot of different programs and the laws need to appreciate those differences
• Quality - how to measure, who will measure, especially with multiple delivery models• Districts is where most education reforms have to move to scale – but there are so many competing priorities that it will make it incredibly difficult
• Continual struggle with sustainability in light of drastic budget cuts at the state/district level
• Missouri virtual school lost all funding - - can this spread and is this a highlight of sustainability issues?
• Too much choice with low quality programs could be problematic delivering low cost in a tight market – will overall hurt online learning and students

Opportunities
• No K-8 supplemental and it is time and we will see this expand in the upcoming year
• More interest for supplement programs at the district level
• Florida funding creates a more stable model that more states need to look at to create sustainability
• FTE funding dollars can create sustainability
• Small rural school districts can sustain through online learning to be competitive – and without it could fail
• Giving students a choice - especially over dropping out
• ARRA – influencing education and creating choice and could provide a moveHow do we counter quality issues?
• Consumer awareness and increased data is key
• Need to say to consumers; “here is what you need to see in order to make the buy decision”
• Low cost provider may be a solution – but districts, parents, teachers all need to know what they are buying
• We don’t have enough research to say what a quality online experience actually is – we need a lot more research to test the standards
• Need longitudinal data on how students are succeeding all through school
• The data is usually 3-4 years old so it is not really applicable to the situation we have now since online learning is accelerating

Why are we holding virutals to a higher level of scrutiny than other delivery models?
• Because it is so different - - price is driving a commoditization of virtual but districts are getting much smarter, much faster and reviewing more for quality and leaving price last
• School Districts and states learning that they have to very clearly define what they want due to the number of options
• Course review processes are getting much more rigorous looking for teaching, interactivity, content and process in order to increase quality – Texas is helping define
• Not just evaluating online courses – we are evaluating a cultural shift - have to involve students since they are the digital natives

Are publishers moving with us?
• Moving from publisher to a solution provider - every dollar invested is how to get content to students through education as a service
• Pearson is looking at the world in an entirely different way
• Students may want it as a text book and virtually
• Textbook processes at the state usually keep a text for 6 years and cannot change and that has to change

What is the online learning experience?
• Constantly changing because all the ways people are using it and the report updates the definitions continuously – wont ever have a final definition
• “online learning” actually hurts us – it is using the internet to deliver instruction that carries over to all learning to individualize instruction – need to stop sticking ourselves in that box

Any progress on the seat time requirements that are hurting online schools?
• Wyoming was able to go to milestones and away from seat hours
• Michigan is fighting districts and budgets and having difficulty in this area
• Seat time and achievement – will move more towards mastery and further away from time as the main factor

Key emerging trends for online learning?
• We haven’t addressed the mobile device and we know it is what students want – might not be 2010 but in 18 months we will see mobile devices
• We will continue to see the conversation changing from what is it to how we manage it
• We will see integration into special education in much greater numbers
• We will see more states require online learning experience - MI, AL already have this
• Several different waves are coming – growth in elementary, blended learning – adults needing a high school diploma are a huge audience coming to virtual schools
• Within corporate training, we will see more cohort based collaborative learning in the corporate world
• More multiple pathways to learning – more ability to just in time resources to support the learning that needs to happen for students
• All states will finally have online learning and the discussion will dramatically change


This is the wave, the wave is coming – you either ride the wave or wipe out!

The future of online learning

Great panel discussion on the Keeping Pace with K-12 Online Learning report.

I kept up with the discussion on the wikispace dedicated to the event which was a good discussion. A lot of information on virtual schools.

Online Education Expansion

Great new online education statisitcs from iNACOL just updated in time for the conference.

K-12 Online Learning and Virtual Schools Expanding Options

• K-12 online learning is a new field consisting of an estimated
  $300 million market, which is growing at an estimated annual
  pace of 30% annually.
• 45 of the 50 states, plus Washington D.C., have a state virtual
  school or online initiative, full-time online schools, or both
• 24 states, as well as Washington, DC, have statewide full-time
  online schools.
• Many virtual schools show annual growth rates between 20 and
  45%
• 35 states have state virtual schools or state-led online programs.
• As of January 2007, there were 173 virtual charter schools
  serving 92,235 students in 18 states.
• 57% of public secondary schools in the U.S. provide access to
  students for online learning.
• 72% of school districts with distance education programs
  planned to expand online offerings in the coming year.
• 14.2 million computers were available for classroom use in the
  nation’s schools as of the 2005-2006 school year. That works out
  to one computer for every four students.

Scholarity is looking forward to being down in Austin and getting more great information on the impact of virtual classes!

Distance Learning Week

Apparently it is National Distance Learning Week! A great way to recognize the millions of students in the US who are studying online. Also kind of a nice way to build the excitement for the other online learning group, iNACOL, as they kick off their annual meeting.

Scholarity is looking forward to finding that forward thinking organization looking for a truly adaptive platform for their amazing content. Let us know if you would like a demo while you are at iNACOL.

School District Spending Cuts

The school spending bubble is about to burst and the cuts taken last year are going to seem minute compared to what will happen in two years when the stimulus money is gone. Already schools are taking drastic action cutting sports, charging more for students services (now $200 for the right to park at school in Loudoun County, VA) and cutting staff. In Utah, districts sharply cut overhead positions and those who were affected went back into teaching positions putting a freeze on any new hiring. But there isn't much overhead left to cut and the numbers are going to be large - so where are the savings going to come from?

Schools don’t work like a business. If a business is faced with steep revenue reductions they look to create efficiencies in their operations to ensure that the output can improve with less cost. There are many efficiencies that teachers can realize through technology and maybe, as the cuts get even deeper, we will actually see some of these. We are already seeing California move to digital textbooks – can digital classes be far behind?

School district spending cuts don’t have to reduce student learning as long as we finally leverage technology in the classroom. I think school districts will finally be forced to blow up the current staffing model due to budget shortfalls and finally use computers in the classroom to provide truly differentiated instruction.

Virtual Charter Schools Held Back

NACSA held a pretty good conference here in Utah this week. A lot of talk about holding charter schools accountable including how to replicated great charter schools and close the weak. Virtual charters were a large part of the discussion since charter authorizers have to figure out ways to ensure that they can manage the growth in online learning.

That lead to some revelations on the insanity that in US charter laws. The first that obviously affects ABCTE teachers is that in some states there are requirements that all virtual teachers be state certified – sometimes at a higher percentage than in brick and mortar schools. The second is that seat time takes precedence over subject matter mastery for students.

Both are ridiculous. Online learning is supposed to fully leverage great talent regardless of geographic location. If a great physics teacher in Pennsylvania is available to inspire future scientists in Utah – they shouldn’t have to jump through hoops in all 50 states to become a teacher.

The real beauty of online learning is truly differentiated instruction. But in our system, if the student masters algebra in 3 months, they don’t get credit unless they sit in front an algebra course for 180 days.

Our laws need to help technology work to increase learning – not hold it back so that the adults can feel better.

Florida Virtual Schools - Innosight

Another great summary by Innosight on the Florida Virtual Schools. Last year they had over 154,000 students in online learning in Florida. Having seen Gov. Jeb Bush at the Excellence in Education conference last week talk about how well Florida is doing in closing the achievement gap through all reforms, you can't help but realize that online learning has been a part of this.

Thanks to Innosight, we can keep seeing these great success stories to help make the case for more online learning so that every student has the chance to succeed.

Technology Catching up with Students

It really is crazy that it is taking so long for education to catch up with students when it comes to technology. A kindle costs less than some text books yet we (parents like me) still pay top dollar for books that rarely get used. Instead of full texts, why aren't professors buying sections of the text just like we buy only the songs we want from an album on iTunes?

It is good to see articles like this in the USAToday - but frustrating to see the pace so slow and the coverage only talking about a few schools.

When will universities change?

Great article on online learning republished from the Chronicle of Higher Ed in Free Dominion on “Will Higher Ed be the Next Bubble to Burst?” by Cronin and Horton. The point I like best about this is it calls out the Phoenix’s of the world who have online institutions but no real cost savings for students over state schools. Shouldn’t there be efficiencies and cost savings from online classes or are they ignoring some of the gains technology can offer?

The story highlights Brigham Young which has lowered tuition! From the article:

“Brigham Young University-Idaho charges only $3,000 in tuition a year, and $6,000 for room and board. Classes are held for three semesters, each 14 weeks, for 42 weeks a year. Faculty members teach three full semesters, which has helped to increase capacity from 25,000 students over two semesters to close to 38,000 over three, with everyone taking one month (August) off. The president, Kim B. Clark, is a former dean of the Harvard Business School and an authority on using technology to achieve efficiencies. By 2012 the university also plans to increase its online offerings to 20 percent of all courses, with 120 online courses that students can take to enrich or accelerate degree completion.”

There you have it. It can be done more efficiently and online courses can accelerate the timing of graduation. The final question: why aren’t more universities doing this?

Virtual Revolution

There was an interesting article in the Sunday Washington Post about the virtual education revolution. It is interesting because the revolution is getting a huge boost from the economy and it is puzzling to me that bricks and mortar institutions are not figuring this out at all.

Students have less money to go to school so institutions have to find efficiencies in their system or they will lose customers. At the same time, institutions are getting significantly less money from the state and feds. But we have more kids wanting to go to college. The result is more crowded classrooms and kids having to stay in school longer because the classes they need are full.

My own daughter had significant problems putting together her schedule at JMU this semester. And all I could think of was why don’t they offer more online courses so the timing wouldn’t be so difficult and it would save everyone some money. The article makes the great point that many of the classes taught are “commodities” that can be accomplished with high volume, low cost methods that virtual classes can provide.

The university systems need to wake up or they will be left behind.

Online learning scores again

Excellent piece by Matt Ladner who is becoming increasingly convinced that the only way to save education is through virtual schooling. He has a great summary of some of the data points that support the argument that education is really in the midst of a disruptive innovation. We could not agree more.

Virtual Education Making the News

The economy is driving business to online schools. Nothing surprising here but it is great to see CNBC covering it. It is not just happening in higher ed – it is a phenomenon in K-12 as well. The only amazing thing is that it has not happened faster.

Innosight primer on virtual schools

The Innosight Institute is releasing case studies of online education. Note that the Innosight team is behind the book "Disrupting Class". The first case study they released is on the Alpine School District in Utah and deserves a quick read.

I found it fascinating from a number of different points. The first is to see a school district striving to meet the needs of home-school parents by marketing a product that they want. How many school districts use business-like responses to issues affecting student enrollment? Second, it is pretty fascinating to see how quickly they are able to get a virtual high school up and running (with K12 Inc). Third is that virtual schools really can save a considerable amount of money and still get results.

Innosight says that more case studies will be released quarterly and I hope so. It is a great primer on the online education market and should help further the cause.

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Let us know what you think! http://www.scholarity.com